Global Silicon Industry Enters Critical Restructuring Phase Amid Supply Chain Reshaping

Supply Chain Dynamics: Export Shifts and Regional Realignment

1.Industrial Silicon Exports Rebound with Structural Changes

●China’s June metal silicon exports surged 22.77% MoM to 68,322 tons, with India replacing Japan as the largest importer (+82.72% MoM). This shift reflects India’s expanding manufacturing base and competitive energy costs .

●Japan maintained stable imports (+5.14% MoM) due to currency-driven inventory strategies, while European imports grew 13.71% in September amid Brazil’s drought-induced production shortfalls .

●Critical Trend: Asian markets (excluding Japan/Korea) absorbed 78.27% of China’s H1 2024 exports, underscoring trade barrier impacts in Western markets .

2.Polycrystalline Silicon Supply Chain Diversification

●OCI Holdings (Korea) and Tokuyama (Japan) launched a $435M joint venture in Malaysia to establish an 8,000-ton electronic-grade polycrystalline silicon plant by 2029. This move targets IRA-compliant U.S. market access and leverages Southeast Asia’s logistics advantages .

Technology Transition: Silicon Carbide’s Accelerated Evolution

1.8-Inch Wafer Capacity Expansion Intensifies

●Global leaders are advancing 8-inch SiC production:

●Wolfspeed’s$5B North Carolina facility (2025 operational) aims to increase substrate output 10x .

●STMicroelectronics-Sanan joint venture in Chongqing targets 10,000 wafers/week by 2025 .

●Silan Microelectronics initiated China’s first 8-inch SiC power device line (72k wafers/year capacity) .

●Cost reductions accelerate adoption: 6-inch SiC wafer prices fell to $400–450, narrowing the SiC-IGBT price gap to 1.5–2x .

2.Material Innovation Breakthroughs

●India’s SNAM Abrasives commercialized 4N-purity (99.99%) SiC for semiconductor and aerospace applications, signaling heightened quality competition .

Policy and Market Impacts

1.China’s "Anti-Internal Competition" Policy Reshapes Market

●Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose 20% and 50% respectively in July, prompting Guangzhou Futures Exchange to impose trading limits and higher margins to curb volatility .

●Mandatory "cost-based pricing" rules forced loss-making polysilicon producers to lift prices, ending a 14-month below-cost cycle .  

2.Geopolitical Factors Drive Manufacturing Relocation

●S./EU import restrictions redirected 56.13% of China’s September silicon exports to non-traditional markets like UAE, Thailand, and Bahrain .

Forward Perspectives

●Short-term:China’s July 25 Photovoltaic Association meeting may announce capacity consolidation guidelines, potentially triggering industry realignment .

●Mid-term:SiC wafer oversupply risks loom as China’s planned 2026 capacity (4.6M wafers) could support 30M EVs—exceeding projected demand .

●Strategic shift:International suppliers increasingly prioritize Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand for tariff-advantaged production, decoupling from concentrated China dependencies .

*This report integrates data from customs authorities, SEMI SMG, and corporate disclosures. Forward-looking statements reflect industry consensus as of July 2025.*